BOM forecaster says early cyclone weather model unreliable
WHAT appears to be a cyclone forming off the East Coast on a Weather Zone map is a common model to see at this time of the year according to a Bureau of Meteorology weather forecaster.
The image of a model showing cyclone cells forming was posted on a Bundaberg Weather Facebook page.
If you look closely the map (above) shows +383 HRS.
Weather forecaster Adam Blazak said models like this which were more than a week out were unreliable, particularly when it came to cyclones.
Mr Blazak said BOM issued tropical advice for cyclones three days out for accuracy and due to the fact that this type of system can change so rapidly.
"This being said, there is a chance at the end of January/start of February we may see monsoonal activity around North Queensland and into the coral sea."
"Monsoonal activity has a chance of increasing but it's still to far away.
"We're keeping an eye on it at this stage."
While there is still a slight chance of a cyclone forming off the coast of Hervey Bay and further south, Mr Blazak said the chances rapidly decreased the further south you get.
"The long term forecast is we're expecting an average year with about four cyclones in the coral sea with one expected to cross the coast," Mr Blazak said.
For the most up to date weather and cyclone advice visit the BOM website.