Clearly the one to beat for Group 1 Stradbroke?
RATINGS expert Paul Daily has favourite Clearly Innocent on top in Saturday's Group 1 UBET Stradbroke, but says he has to take a set against the last start Kingsford Smith Cup winner at the current price.
Clearly Innocent returned easily the highest rating of the carnival on Daily's Ratings2Win WQR performance ratings, but as stated last week, it wouldn't surprise him if the horse returned a figure below that level on Saturday.
"I have him favourite in the market, but at $8, so I just have to risk him at that price," Daily said.
"I don't see a lot of options for them from that gate and around Doomben with the rail going back to the 0.5M position, I don't think it's an ideal set-up."
Daily is also opposing the Chris Waller duo Mackintosh and Counterattack.
"I've got Counterattack twice the odds he is at the moment. His form has been solid enough, but there are some characteristics in his form that I don't like. He hasn't won for a while," he said.
"And I can't believe Mackintosh is $7.50. I've got him rated worse than 20-1. The gelding is a bleeder, which is often a plus when racing fresh, but I feel there is no value in the current quote."
Two of the past four Stradbroke winners have come off last start South Australian runs and Daily believes that's a distinct possibility to happen again.
"Burning Front is the one that I think is way over the odds," he said. "He's a horse that loves a fight and in a Stradbroke that looks like rating below its usual level, he's right there in my opinion.
"It automatically follows that I am giving Hooked a chance, because he finished alongside Burning Front last time."
The other runner Daily rates highly is Ulmann.
"I thought his run at Doomben was the best in the race outside the winner (Jungle Edge) and this race sets up nicely for him to return to his peak rating, which puts him right in it," he said.