Lachie Neale is one of the leading Brownlow contenders. Picture: Getty Images
Lachie Neale is one of the leading Brownlow contenders. Picture: Getty Images

Crystal ball: Will there be a Brownlow surprise?

Star Cat Patrick Dangerfield could score a perfect nine votes in the final three rounds to storm home in Monday's Brownlow Medal count.

The midfielder on Sunday shortened to $2.50 favourite with TAB to chase down his rivals and win his second league best-and-fairest award.

He would become only the 15th man to win dual Brownlows and in striking distance of becoming the fifth player to pocket three.

Fremantle captain Nat Fyfe is also chasing multiple medals after another outstanding year, in which he averaged 29 possessions.

Dangerfield, 29, is likely to poll three votes in big wins against North Melbourne in Round 21 (33 disposals and one goal) and Carlton in Round 23 (34 and one goal).

Brisbane Lion Charlie Cameron could prevent the hat-trick after the electric small forward bagged five goals in the thrilling win against Geelong in Round 22.

Geelong coach Chris Scott publicly questioned how influential Cameron was in that game, in which Dangerfield racked up 36 touches, nine clearances and one goal.

Dangerfield's five biggest threats - Fyfe, Brisbane's Lachie Neale, Collingwood's Brodie Grundy, Carlton's Patrick Cripps and Western Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli - are all tipped to poll votes in Round 23, setting the scene for a thrilling finish.

All five polled coaches' votes in the final round.

Patrick Cripps is a leading contender for the Brownlow. Picture: AAP Images
Patrick Cripps is a leading contender for the Brownlow. Picture: AAP Images

Grundy received a perfect 10 from Nathan Buckley and John Worsfold for his 33 disposals and 35 hitouts against Essendon.

Cripps' medal claims will hinge on whether he can replicate Gary Ablett's performance in 2013 and regularly poll votes in an unsuccessful side.

The Blues won seven games this year. Ablett's Gold Coast had eight victories in 2013.

Cripps started the season on fire, racking up more than 28 touches in his first four matches, but the Blues, under Brendon Bolton, won only one of their first 11 games.


Can anyone stop Patrick Dangerfield? Picture: Michael Klein
Can anyone stop Patrick Dangerfield? Picture: Michael Klein

His herculean four-goal and 38-possession effort in David Teague's first game in charge in Round 12, a win against Brisbane Lions, is the most certain three-vote performance of the count.

Intrigue also surrounds Neale's votes in the final round and whether he will be rewarded with the three for his 51 possessions in a loss to Richmond at the MCG. The Tigers chose not to tag Neale as he ran riot with 14 clearances.

AFL figures have called on the umpires to provide defenders with greater recognition in the Brownlow Medal and Tigers backman Nick Vlastuin was given the top coaches' votes in that game with nine marks across half-back.


Hawthorn defender Ben Stratton and St Kilda stopper Nathan Brown have never polled a vote from a combined 336 games coming into this season.

In contrast, Dangerfield has averaged 25 votes in the past seven seasons, for a career haul of 182.

The only two active players who have polled more Brownlow votes in their careers are fellow Cats Gary Ablett (248) and Joel Selwood (195).

Another teammate, Tim Kelly, is the $1.65 favourite to lead after Round 10, but Dangerfield will begin to rocket home with 38 possessions in the 67-point win against Richmond in Round 12.

Who will win the Brownlow Medal?

Tipster First Second Third
SAM LANDSBEGERM. Bontempelli (WB) 30N. Fyfe (Frem)P. Dangerfield (Geel)
LAUREN WOODP.Dangerfield (Geel) 32 N. Fyfe (Frem) P. Cripps (Carl)
REBECCA WILLIAMSP. Dangerfield (Geel) 33N. Fyfe (Frem)M. Bontempelli (WB)
NICK SMARTM.Bontempelli (WB) 29P.Dangerfield (Geel)B.Grundy (Coll)
MICK MALTHOUSEB. Grundy (Coll) 28 P. Dangerfield (Geel)P. Cripps (Car)
SCOTT GULLANP. Dangerfield (Geel) 29P. Cripps (Carl)M. Bontempelli (WB)
JON RALPHB. Grundy (Coll) 28P. Cripps (Carl)P. Dangerfield (Geel)
MICHAEL WARNERP. Cripps (Carl) 28P. Dangerfield (Geel)N. Fyfe (Frem)
SAM EDMUNDP. Cripps (Carl) 26M. Bontempelli (WB)P. Dangerfield (Geel)
DERMOTT BRERETONP. Cripps (Carl) 24L. Neale (Bris)P. Dangerfield (Geel)
GLENN McFARLANEP. Dangerfield (Geel) 26B. Grundy (Coll)M. Bontempelli (WB)
DAVID KINGL. Neale (Bris) 27P. Dangerfield (Geel) N. Fyfe (Frem)
JAY CLARKP. Dangerfield (Geel) 26N. Fyfe (Frem) L. Neale (Bris)
MARK ROBINSONP.Dangerfield (Geel) 33 N. Fyfe (Frem) L Neale (Bris)
MICK MCGUANEL. Neale (Bris) 26P. Dangerfield (Geel)P. Cripps (Car)
CHRIS CAVANAGHP. Dangerfield (Geel) 26P. Cripps (Carl)B. Grundy (Coll)






Brodie Grundy to finish top 5 - $3


Patrick Dangerfield and Nat Fyfe quinella - $5.50


Patrick Dangerfield and Nat Fyfe quinella - $5.50


Patridck Dangerfield most votes 19-23 - $4.50


Patrick Dangerfield Nat Fyfe and Patrick Cripps trifecta $47


Andrew Gaff most votes West Coast - $3.25


Jackson Macrae top-three - $7.25


Dustin Martin most votes Rds 15 -23 - $3


Patrick Dangerfield Nat Fyfe Marcus Bontempelli trifecta $15


Patrick Dangerfield Tim Kelly quinella $30


Brodie Grundy winner - $15


Lachie Neale top-three $2.10


Dion Prestia to finish top-10 - $3.50


Rory Sloane most votes Adelaide $11


Paddy Dangerfield most votes Rds 15-23 $3.50


Patrick Dangerfield to finish top-10 $1.02

News Corp Australia

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