Cyclone threat for Qld in wild run to Easter
THE Queensland cyclone season remains active with the potential developing for a wild weather lead up to Easter depending on a number of scenarios now in play.
Some modelling showed two deep low pressure systems forming on top of each other off the Queensland coast by next Tuesday.
A tropical low north off Thursday Island was expected to intensify while pushing west across the northern Gulf of Carpenteria over the next few days, while a second system now over the Solomon Sea was forecast to shift south-east into the north-eastern Coral Sea during Wednesday and Thursday.
The Bureau of Meteorology rated the likelihood of either tropical low developing or moving into Queensland waters during the next three days with an updated forecast expected about 2.40pm for its Northern Territory office.
The BOM expects the weak low pressure system over the Coral Sea to shift south during the outlook period while remaining well offshore of the east Queensland coast.
It says there was potential for a low or tropical cyclone to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria next week but said there was a great deal of uncertainty associated with the evolution of the system.
BOM forecaster Jim Richards said weather models were still diverging on the increased potential for a cyclone developing in the Gulf of Carpentaria or Arafura Sea.
He said a weak low also existed in the Torres Strait which was expected to move west.
Most weather models had also identified a low pressure system in the Coral Sea which would be closely watched.
The surface sea temperature at the Mooloolaba wave buoy remains above 26 degrees - the minimum required to feed a cyclonic system - above 30 degrees in the Gulf of Carpentaria and above 28 at Townsville and around 27 degrees off Central Queensland.
The Sunshine Coast can expect increasing shower activity pushing in from the sea over the coming days from a series of troughs forming along a high pressure ridge.
Overnight into Tuesday falls to 15mm were recorded north of Noosa while only 1-2mm fell at Sunshine Coast Airport.
A 90 per cent chance of rain was predicted for Wednesday with falls to 20mm possible while there was also 80 per cent chance of falls to 10mm on Thursday and Friday.
South easterly winds to would also be a feature of the coming days, reaching 30km/h on Wednesday.