Monster satellite city: Property price crystal ball
HOUSE prices around the giant Caboolture West satellite city north of Brisbane have appreciated significantly in the past decade, but one expert has a stark warning for everyday investors.
Caboolture West is planned to introduce 26,900 new homes and 68,700 residents over the next 40 odd years, but construction is yet to begin with no current supporting infrastructure in place.
A spokesman for the Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning said Moreton Bay council area is expected to be home to an additional 217,700 people, requiring more than 88,000 new dwellings to be built, by 2041.
Caboolture West is expected to shoulder a significant portion of these homes.
"While ShapingSEQ set a target of 45 per cent of new dwellings to be built in new growth areas in the Moreton Bay area, it is up to council to decide how to accommodate this capacity," he said.
"During the development of the regional plan, council chose to maintain its focus for future growth in Caboolture West."
Median house prices in surrounding suburbs Upper Caboolture and Wamuran have had some of the biggest increases in Moreton Bay between 2009 to 2018.
They have appreciated at a rate of 26 and 21 per cent respectively.
Real Estate Institute Queensland Caboolture/Redcliffe chair James Brown said prices around Caboolture West spiked at two major historical moments.
"Prices have appreciated since that masterplan was released (2012) and when it was projected as an investigation area 10 years ago (2009)," he said.
"A lot of the property that's out there within the Caboolture West masterplan has already been acquired by or had developer interest.
"When it was first identified as an investigation area, people were anticipating it was going to be developed into small lot residential housing - moving away from the otherwise rural, broad acre parcels.
"Some contracts didn't proceed because of the time it's taken to get where it is now."
A host of land has been snapped up by national developers such as Stockland and Coles, while lesser known companies such as Lennium Group are also looking to build.
However these land sales don't necessarily mean nearby house prices will feel the same love, according to University of Queensland planning academic Laurel Johnson.
"Where we've seen (satellite city developments) before; Ripley compared to old Ripley, Flagstone compared to old Flagstone, there hasn't been a lot of lift (in house prices)," she said.
"Master planners flog their own brand name and market increases are fairly contained within those communities. Anything outside of that - even if it is nearby - is not that.
"The value is in the newness of the development; the rebadging or rebranding and separation from the old place.
"The community may benefit from association, if the public assets and amenities are of good quality and not in the existing community (schools, parks and open space etc)."
Queensland based developer Lennium Group is currently working through a development application with the Moreton Bay Regional Council to build roughly 800 homes on a 64ha site at 409-423 Caboolture River Rd.
Development manager Ian Worthington said he hopes to be building by this time next year if he can resolve existing "planning issues" with the council.
"It will be affordable," he said. "That's what we're trying to achieve with it, but I think people will be impressed when they come out there and start to realise it's beautiful country.
"It's quite lush; you've got the river and the Glasshouse Mountains in the background and it's only a few minutes away from the main drag of Morayfield.
"Where we are, in the Neighbourhood Development Plan (NDP) area 1, there's another five developers who have bought and own land in there - the expectation is we're all going to start at the same time."
Singaporean developer Lillian Ang had the foresight to buy 410 ha of prime cattle breeding land within Caboolture West local plan for $1.25 million in 1991, which is now the site of the AV Jennings' proposed 8700-home masterplan community.
While Stockland has a 177ha site within the local plan it bought in 2008, which it projects will be used to develop 1400 homes at a total project value of $358 million.
Stockland Queensland Communities GM David Laner said it was willing to sit on land until the time is right to develop.
"There is still some way to go in terms of planning and infrastructure but we look forward to working with all levels of government and other local landowners to unlock this site," he said.
Coles Property Group has purchased a two-hectare corner block at the fraction of the size of the other two properties for $4 million.
Happystance Developments has also bought six smaller properties within the region worth $5.9 million since December 2017.
Timeline of Caboolture West
2005 and 2009: Caboolture West shown as an investigation area in South East Queensland Regional Plans
February 2012: became a Declared Master Planned Area
2013: Structure plan was developed by council and included in the Caboolture West local plan in council's draft planning scheme
February 2016: Moreton Bay Planning Scheme commenced, including the Caboolture West local plan
August 2017: Caboolture West included in the urban footprint of ShapingSEQ as a major expansion area