Newspoll shows Rudd likely to win four seats in Qld
LABOR is in a position to pick up as many as four seats in Queensland on September 7 but faces the prospect of losing 10 in New South Wales, including Page in northern New South Wales.
State-by-state analysis of each Newspoll survey taken since the election was called more than three weeks ago shows Kevin Rudd's return to the leadership has had the desired effect in his home state of Queensland.
Using preference flows from the 2010 election, Labor's two-party-preferred support in Queensland has jumped 2.1% to 47%, while the Coalition's is down two points to 53%.
If replicated across the state on election day the 2.1% swing would help Labor win the seats of Longman, Forde, Brisbane and Moreton from the Liberal-National Party, while first-term MP George Christensen would hold on in the central Queensland seat of Dawson but would be left with a razor-thin margin of 0.3%.
But the gains in Queensland would be more than offset by losses in other mainland states, most notably NSW, where there has been a swing against Labor since 2010.
The analysis shows Labor faces a 7.2% swing against it in South Australia, which would lead to Hindmarsh falling to the Liberal Party.
A 1.3% fall in support for Labor in Victoria would help the Coalition win the seats of Deakin and Corangamite.
In NSW the Newspoll analysis showed a 6.5% swing away from Labor since the 2010 election. A uniform swing of his magnitude across the state on September 7 would help the Coalition unseat 10 Labor MPs including frontbencher Mike Kelly in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, which has gone with the party that wins government at every election since 1972.
Labor would also lose a number of key western Sydney seats, while popular Page MP Janelle Saffin would also fail to gain a third term.
The state-by-state analysis predicts a net loss of nine seats for Labor.