Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk laughs as she poses for a photo after meeting Labor volunteers in Brisbane, Friday, November 24, 2017. Ms Palaszczuk is on the campaign trail ahead of tomorrow's state election. (AAP Image/Dan Peled) NO ARCHIVING
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk laughs as she poses for a photo after meeting Labor volunteers in Brisbane, Friday, November 24, 2017. Ms Palaszczuk is on the campaign trail ahead of tomorrow's state election. (AAP Image/Dan Peled) NO ARCHIVING

Qld election results: Labor predictions come true

THE final week frenzy of chasing votes and pitching arguments looks like having been mostly a wasted ­effort.

The most reliable polls conducted in the last few days -The Courier-Mail/Galaxy poll, Newspoll and Saturday's Galaxy exit poll - showed no shift in the vote.

Labor recorded about 37 per cent primary support, trailed by the LNP on 35 per cent. One Nation was on 12 or 13 per cent and the Greens on 8 or 9 per cent, with the Katter Party and others on about 5 or 6 points.

When Galaxy broke the exit poll votes down, the story was the same, as we saw in The Courier-Mail's survey - a strong swing to Labor in the southeast and a corresponding swing against the ALP in the rest of the state.

This polling and the very early results - representing just a few per cent of votes cast - suggest Labor is doing well enough to hang on in enough seats in and around Brisbane to give Annastacia Palaszczuk confidence she could hold on to her job.

Outside of the southeast, the results were mixed for everyone.

Labor was holding up in some seats, losing votes to One Nation in others and the LNP was in search of any good news.

If the Labor vote does stay strong in the metropolitan area and around Brisbane - and improve in some places - while the LNP not only underperforms there but can't find any compensation in regional and provincial seats, then the heat is going to be on for Tim Nicholls and the conservatives.

It looks like One Nation has had very good results in some seats - such as Mirani and Burdekin - but is not getting anywhere near enough support to fulfil the promise early in the campaign.

Because of the pivotal importance of Queensland in national politics, a poor showing by the LNP will spark soul searching and attacks of the nerves among federal politicians.

Labor will take great heart from any improvement in the performance of the Palaszczuk Government. The already regular visits by Bill Shorten north of the Tweed will become even more frequent.

If these early trends play out as the counting progresses, the LNP will have to look at the split personality it presents in Brisbane and places like Mackay and Bowen.

Having progressive, pro-marriage equality MPs in the southeast doesn't equate with the more robust socially conservative politicians in central and far north Queensland.



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